Monday, August 13, 2012

Gross spells out doomsday scenario for investors

Financial Review



Anna Bernasek


Bill Gross, billionaire king of the bond market, could be the biggest party pooper of all time. Especially as far as the stock market is concerned. This month Gross, who runs the world’s largest mutual fund, boldly asserted that automatic asset appreciation was a thing of the past and equities were “dead”.

In his monthly letter to investors, Gross said both bonds and stocks would not generate the kind of historic returns Americans are accustomed to. According to Gross we need to work much more or accept a lot less.

For the past few decades the conventional wisdom has been that stocks generate substantial returns over the long run. Experts told individual investors to invest in stocks for their retirement. That view was backed up by analysis from Wharton economist Jeremy Siegel who showed stocks had delivered real annual returns of 6.6 per cent since 1912. That expectation became conventional wisdom which Gross called into question.

“The Siegel constant of 6.6% real appreciation, therefore, is an historical freak, a mutation likely never to be seen again as far as we mortals are concerned,” wrote Gross. “The simple point though whether approached in real or nominal space is that U.S. and global economies will undergo substantial change if they mistakenly expect asset price appreciation to do the heavy lifting over the next few decades.”

If Gross is right, then the implications are far reaching. The American investment mentality has been underpinned by ‘stocks for the long run’ for a generation. Major pieces of the economy--taxes, investment, retirement, and lots of jobs—depend on that foundation. But does it have to be a gloomy forecast?

What Gross says is that the fundamentals for stocks and bonds are lousy and won’t get better any time soon. On one hand interest rates are already so low that bonds have nowhere to go. And on the other, slow growth gripping the world economy means equities can’t perform.

“If labor and indeed government must demand some recompense for the four decades long downward tilting teeter-totter of wealth creation, and if GDP growth itself is slowing significantly due to deleveraging in a New Normal economy, then how can stocks appreciate at 6.6% real?” Gross asks and answers: “They cannot, absent a productivity miracle that resembles Apple’s wizardry.”

Let’s decode that for a minute. The downward teeter totter refers to a historic shift of wealth and assets from the working middle class to a highly concentrated group of stockholders over the last thirty years. And when Gross talks about labor and government “recompense”, he means higher wages and higher taxes are on their way.

Simple demographics are also at work. As the baby boom generation ages and retires, they shift out of equities and into cash and fixed income assets. Generations x and y have become disenchanted with stocks. And the youngest Americans, known as generation z, have nothing to invest.

We can already see the shift away from equities. In the $11.6 trillion US mutual fund market, last year investors withdrew money from equity funds at a faster pace than in 2010. Meanwhile US stocks returned a total of just 1 per cent after including dividends.

According to the Investment Company Institute: “Domestic equity funds have had six consecutive years of withdrawals totaling $471 billion, more than expected based on the historical relationship between returns on U.S. stocks and demand for domestic equity funds.”

For three decades, indeed a whole generation, exceptional returns accrued to the owners of American businesses. If that’s no longer the case, we’re at the beginning of a big structural shift.

For some high fliers the fastest way to create wealth was to own companies, cut a few costs and then re-sell them to an eager public. Think of presidential candidate Mitt Romney. When he was at Bain Capital that’s a pretty good summary of what he did. But if owning a company is no longer a golden ticket, many short term strategies will no longer pay off.

A few years of quick profits can amount to nothing over the longer term. Americans may need to start playing a longer game, putting emphasis on incremental, durable value creation. That doesn’t mean phenomenal wealth can’t be created. But it will take lots of time and effort.

Many aspects of our current investment system offer short term rewards. Compensation is still mainly tied to yearly marks. Quarterly reporting cycles and 24-hour news reward gamesmanship while punishing anyone intent on longer plans.

The implication of Gross’s view is that instead of boldness and speed Americans ought to practice patience and determination to build their wealth.

The big picture is typically cloudy. So long as unemployment remains high wages will remain under pressure. But companies building durable, high functioning teams that will work effectively for decades might nudge pay upwards. Many mature businesses could well see diminishing returns. But the irrepressible spirits of innovation and progress may spawn unforeseen growth. So despite the apparent gloom of Gross’s wake up call it might set the stage for long overdue changes. And that just might turn out to be the silver lining.



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