Placing Odds on your Health (and Its Cost)

Read my Datapoints column in today's New York Times. The really important point in shopping for health insurance is understanding your risks of incurring big bills. That information is difficult for individuals to figure out. (and neither the government or health insurers are making it any easier)  

What Americans could use is an individual assessment of risk based on health history, age, and other relevant factors. We know that it can be done, at least to some degree, since in past years health insurers studied their data to figure out who was likely to have big expenses in order to deny them coverage. Health insurers are not making that data readily available, though. 

For now, Milliman’s estimates which I use as the basis for my NYT column can provide a rough guide. Here's the table Milliman provided. Perhaps in the future we’ll see better ways to help Americans become savvy health care shoppers.

The Risk of Incurring Various Amounts of Health Expense in a Year, Without Health Insurance.

Source: Milliman Inc

(1)	(2)
Trended	Percentage of
Total	Adults (under 65) with
Annual	Claims Greater
Claim	than Column 1
(Rounded)	(Rounded)
$0	93%
$100	90%
$500	80%
$900	70%
$1,700	60%
$2,700	50%
$4,300	40%
$7,300	30%
$13,300	20%
$26,800	10%
$47,300	5%